The Essen stroke risk score is widely applied to predict the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. We developed a modified Essen stroke risk score and validated it using a large prospective Effective Vascular Event REduction after STroke (EVEREST) registry including 3588 patients with ischemic stroke in Japan. Patients with cardioembolic stroke were excluded, and follow-up was one-year.
The modified Essen stroke risk score was calculated from scores for waist circumference, stroke subtype by etiology, and gender in addition to age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, other cardiovascular diseases except myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation, peripheral artery disease, smoking, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. A multiple logistic regression model identified the predictors (each assigned one or two points) and provided c-statistics for the modified Essen stroke risk score. We considered two outcomes, recurrent ischemic stroke and cardiovascular events (defined as the combined outcomes of fatal or nonfatal stroke, myocardial infarction, nonfatal unstable angina, and cardiac death). Read more