Development of a Point-based Prediction Model for the Incidence of Total Stroke

STROKEAHA: February 28, 2013

Background and Purpose—An individualized risk score for the development of stroke may be a useful tool to motivate patients to modify their risk behaviors. We developed and validated a point-based prediction model (risk score) for stroke incidence using a Japanese cohort of general men and women.

Methods—The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study cohort II (age range, 40–69 years at baseline in 1993–1994; n=15 672) was used to derive the point-based model according to Cox regression results. The model was externally validated using the Japan Public Health Center study cohort I and also by bootstrap methods within cohort II. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, model calibration, by the Grønnesby–Borgan χ2 statistic. Vascular age was also calculated. Read more