Lifetime Risk and Years Lived Free of Total Cardiovascular Disease

JAMA: November 7, 2012

Context  Estimates of lifetime risk for total cardiovascular disease (CVD) may provide projections of the future population burden of CVD and may assist in clinician-patient risk communication. To date, no lifetime risk estimates of total CVD have been reported.

Objectives  To calculate lifetime risk estimates of total CVD by index age (45, 55, 65, 75 years) and risk factor strata and to estimate years lived free of CVD across risk factor strata.

Design, Setting, and Participants  Pooled survival analysis of as many as 905 115 person-years of data from 1964 through 2008 from 5 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute–funded community-based cohorts: Framingham Heart Study, Framingham Offspring Study, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry Study, and Cardiovascular Health Study. All participants were free of CVD at baseline with risk factor data (blood pressure [BP], total cholesterol [TC], diabetes, and smoking status) and total CVD outcome data. Read More