Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010–2030

Population Health Metrics: 9/18/13

Although diabetes is one of the most costly and rapidly increasing serious chronic diseases worldwide, the optimal mix of strategies to reduce diabetes prevalence has not been determined.


Using a dynamic model that incorporates national data on diabetes prevalence and incidence, migration, mortality rates, and intervention effectiveness, we project the effect of five hypothetical prevention policies on future US diabetes rates through 2030: 1) no diabetes prevention strategy; 2) a “high-risk” strategy, wherein adults with both impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (fasting plasma glucose of 100–124 mg/dl) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (2-hour post-load glucose of 141–199 mg/dl) receive structured lifestyle intervention; 3) a “moderate-risk” strategy, wherein only adults with IFG are offered structured lifestyle intervention; 4) a “population-wide” strategy, in which the entire population is exposed to broad risk reduction policies; and 5) a “combined” strategy, involving both the moderate-risk and population-wide strategies. We assumed that the moderate- and high-risk strategies reduce the annual diabetes incidence rate in the targeted subpopulations by 12.5% through 2030 and that the population-wide approach would reduce the projected annual diabetes incidence rate by 2% in the entire US population. Read more