Prediction of Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Stenosis in the General Population

STROKEAHA: July 3, 2014

Background and Purpose—Because of a low prevalence of severe carotid stenosis in the general population, screening for presence of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) is not warranted. Possibly, for certain subgroups, screening is worthwhile. The present study aims to develop prediction rules for the presence of ACAS (>50% and >70%).

Methods—Individual participant data from 4 population-based cohort studies (Malmö Diet and Cancer Study, Tromsø Study, Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression Study, and Cardiovascular Health Study; totaling 23 706 participants) were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine which variables predict presence of ACAS (>50% and >70%). Calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed, and bootstrapping was used to correct for overfitting. Read More